US-Israel attack on Iran: Tracing history of conflict leading to Feb 28 strike (1st part of in-depth series)

It’s been weeks since the conflict between the United States-Israel and Iran intensified on February 28. 

In an operation dubbed “Epic Fury” by the US, and “Lion’s Roar” by Israel, Iran suffered from coordinated bombings in and around Tehran, claiming the lives of several top Iranian officials, including its Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. 

In retaliation, Iran and its axis of resistance also launched air and missile strikes across the region, affecting Qatar, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain—an approach which political scientists describe as a mosaic defense strategy” aimed at spreading the war and disrupting global channels. 

According to numbers presented by Rappler with information from Al-Jazeera and Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), the casualties of the war resulted in more than 2,700 deaths. 

However, the data compiled by international news outlet BBC on March 17 tallies over 4,000 slain. According to Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRANA), an estimated 3,114 people were killed in the US-Israel strike, including 1,354 civilians, of whom at least 207 were children. More than 10,000 civilians were also injured during the attack, with over 3.2 million displaced.

Meanwhile, Israeli authorities reported that Iran’s retaliatory missile strike took the lives of 14 civilians. In Lebanon, the health ministry reveals that the Israeli strikes killed 912 people and wounded more than 2,000 others, with more than 830,000 reportedly displaced. 

In the surrounding Gulf States, 14 US service members and 11 civilians were reportedly killed. Numbers are still increasing as the conflict escalates.

(The Communicator recognizes some inaccuracies in mortality figures as information remains a blur due to difficulty of verifying facts independently in the ensuing war, and the information warfare between US and Iran who are inflating and deflating numbers for their benefit.)

Nuclear History

Both countries have had a strained relationship since the 1979 Islamic revolution. For more than 40 years, the US and Iran have exchanged attacks and held several reconciliatory meetings, often centered on nuclear arms.

Iran began its nuclear program in 1957 under the US’ support. In 1968, it signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), establishing itself as a non-nuclear state, agreeing not to produce weapons of mass destruction in the future. 

However, after the Western-allied monarch, the Shah (the hereditary ruler or king of Iran), was overthrown during the Islamic Revolution, that earned the withdrawal of the US’ support. The country later resumed its nuclear development, becoming a concern for Western powers. 

While Iran claims it is not developing nuclear weapons under its obligations in the NPT, it has continued its program under the notion of civilian nuclear power and pursued agreements with China and Russia for the program’s research in the 1990s.

By 2002, the dissident group National Council of Resistance of Iran revealed that the country had two nuclear sites hidden within, which the government claimed were maintained solely for nuclear energy. By 2006, a series of non-compliance issues by Iran led to the UN Security Council’s (UNSC) formation of Resolution 1696, the first legally-binding call for Iran to stop its uranium enrichment activities. 

In the following years, the UNSC imposed several economic sanctions against Iran, which led to its economic decline. By 2013, former president Hassan Rouhani won the election with the promise of lifting these sanctions, leading to the eventual creation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on October 18, 2015.

The JCPOA is a joint agreement between the P5+1 countries (US, China, United Kingdoms, France, Russia, and Germany), the European Union (EU), and Iran to ensure that the latter’s nuclear program will remain peaceful. 

However, while limited by the JCPOA, Iran instead continued on producing ballistic missiles, and invested with Shiite militias through its Qud force—the international arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This aid helped Palestine’s militant group Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis, and Syria and Iraq’s Shiites to build up arms and training—thus the US calling Iran the foremost state sponsor of terrorism.

Back-and-forth struggle

During President Donald Trump’s first presidency, his initial move was to withdraw the US from the JCPOA agreement, while pledging to pursue a better treaty. 

By 2018, Trump began reimposing heavier sanctions on Iran and encouraged other European countries to withdraw from the agreement, leading to the worst economic crisis Iran faced in the past 40 years. 

In April 2019, Washington officially designated the IRGC as a terrorist organization, and deployed forces to the Strait of Hormuz to defend against Iran following intelligence reports that the country would attack US troops. 

The conflict further worsened through the years as both countries exchanged attacks, but the tensions intensified when Israel was pulled into the mix due to Hamas’ October 23, 2023 strike. Iran-backed proxy forces ramped up strikes as Israel’s military entered the Gaza strip, reaching up to 200 strikes against US and Israeli forces in Syria and Iraq. 

By February 2024, Houthis and Hezbollah had also launched attacks, leading to the conflict’s regional spillover. Afterwards, a suspected Israeli strike on an Iranian Consular Building in Syria led to the death of two generals and five military advisors. In retaliation, Iran released 300 drone and missile attacks against Israel. 

In the span of a few months, Israel successfully slain the leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas, so Iran sent 180 ballistic missiles by October 2024. The downfall of these military leaders weakened Iran’s axis of resistance. 

When Trump returned to office in 2025, he resumed his maximum pressure campaign against Iran, while also initiating negotiations for the nuclear program, aiming to recreate the JCPOA treaty of 2015. Israel firmly rejected the talks due to fear of regional power imbalance. 

From June 13 to 22, Israel and Iran fought on what is referred to as the 12-day war, wherein both countries exchanged strikes reportedly due to Israel’s fear of Iran’s nuclear weaponization which was unproven.

During these twelve days, the US also intervened in the conflict, bombing three nuclear sites in Iran, namely: Natanz, Isfahan, and Mordow. 

Still the talks continued for months, albeit continued conflicts. The back-and-forth discussion bled into early 2026, with Trump supporting the internal revolt in Iran, claiming that a ‘regime change’ is coming. 

By February 26, US and Iran ended a ‘serious’ talk, claiming to progress the deal. But two days later, the US and Israel launched operation “Epic Fury/Lion’s Roar,” leading to the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader and spiritual head. 

Khamenei is succeeded by his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who is appointed by the 88-seat council of clerics, Council of Experts, to confront Iran’s crisis.

Challenges for the country remain as Mojtaba’s rise to power is full of controversies given his middle-rank position as cleric, his father’s alleged refusal to appoint him as successor, and Iran masses’ increasing revulsion to religious leadership.

Philippines' position in ‘theater of conflict’ 

Despite the Philippines’ Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the US, the Department of National Defense (DND) debunked fears and stressed that “At the moment, the conflict is contained within the Middle East and there is no credible direct threat to our territory, as well as to Filipinos and foreign citizens in the Philippines.” 

Additionally, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea, Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad, dismissed rumors that Iran will attack US bases in the country, clarifying that the EDCA sites are not owned or controlled by the US.

Furthermore, Iran’s longest-ranged missile, the Soumar, can only travel roughly 2000 to 3000 kilometers, far from the 7,500-kilometer distance between the country and Iran. 

However, Kabataan Partylist representative Raoul Manuel questioned the factuality of these claims, as the national government is preparing migrant workers in California for possible attacks, when the region is roughly 12,000 kilometers away from Iran. 

“Mula Iran, mas malapit ang Pilipinas kaysa California. Recall: the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln conducted "routine" flight operations in the Philippines before being deployed for use against Iran,” Manuel said in a Facebook post.

Moreover, while Iran is said to be unlikely to attack the Philippines, its ally, Beijing, could presumably take action against the US' Pacific allies.  

A political analyst from The Fulcrum explains how EDCA sites are not recalibrated for war, which can prove to be problematic given China’s advances in the West Philippine Sea and Taiwan. 

If Beijing takes advantage of the Middle East conflict to weaken the US' hold on the Pacific, the Philippines is in grave threat, given its weaker military force in comparison to other US allies South Korea and Singapore. 

Regardless, it remains true that the country is affected by the global market disruption set off by the war. While the defense department and civic organizations exchange discussion on the possibility of attacks, fact remains that the masses are impacted by the war through oil price hikes and inflation.

Article: Marc Nathaniel Servo

Graphics: Jaydel Calma